Our approach to accuracy
Validated, not guessed
Most property "lead scores" are educated guesses — a pile of signals with weights someone made up, never checked against what actually happened. We do it the other way around: we test our scoring against homes that really went to foreclosure, and keep only the signals that predicted it.
We analyze 50+ distinct signals across clerk filings, tax pressure, code enforcement, court activity, and active listings — then keep only the ones that separate real foreclosures from look-alikes that never sold. We publish the categories, never the individual signals or weights. That last part is the moat.
Distress is easy. Prediction is hard.
Anyone can flag a property that looks distressed. The hard part — the part that decides whether a lead is worth your time — is knowing whether that distress actually leads to a sale.
Plenty of "obvious" distress signals turn out to be noise: they show up just as often on perfectly stable homes. Score on those and you drown in false positives. The only way to know the difference is to measure it against real outcomes — which is exactly what most tools never do.
A signal only earns its weight if it pushes these two groups apart.
How we validate a score
The method is simple to say and rare to actually do. Four steps, run continuously.
Start with real outcomes
We take Suffolk County properties whose outcome is known — homes that actually went to foreclosure — and set them next to similar properties that did not. Ground truth, not a hunch.
Compare, don’t assume
For every candidate signal, we ask a hard question: does it actually show up more often in the properties that foreclosed than in the look-alikes that didn’t? A signal has to earn its place.
Keep only what predicts
Signals that separate the two groups stay — and get weighted by how strongly they do. Signals that look distressed but don’t predict a sale get down-weighted or cut entirely, even if they seem obvious.
Re-test as data grows
As more outcomes land, we re-run the comparison and re-tune. The score gets sharper over time instead of drifting on assumptions.
Why this matters to you
When we hand you a high score, it isn't a vibe — it's a number that behaved like the homes that actually went to foreclosure. That means less time chasing dead leads, and more confidence that the owner at the top of your list is genuinely worth the call.
We don't publish the individual signals or weights behind the score — that's the part competitors would love to copy. What we'll always tell you is the thing that counts: it was measured against reality.